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The
world press regarded the result as an upset; the conservative
establishment in the Iranian government
had backed Ali
Akbar Nateq-Noori, the Speaker of the Majlis, and it was assumed
that its endorsement was sufficient to carry the vote. The
conventional wisdom in this case, however, was proven to be
false - perhaps because outside observers hadn't appreciated
the history and depth of the Iran's reform movement.
Since
the 1989 election of Rafsanjani, there have been attempts
to reverse certain policies and practices put in place during
the Revolution. While the power of the executive branch has
been enhanced over the past several years, the faqih (or spiritual
leader) is still the primary leader of the country and without
his support no issue can be legitimately addressed. Since
the death of Ayatollah Khomeini, issues such as censorship,
the rights of women, and rule of law have started to be more
openly discussed, and the current faqih Ayatollah Khamenei
has moved into the political background and rarely supports
either the conservatives or the reformers. The election of
Mohammad Khatami as President of Iran has brought such issues
to the political forefront, where they have met fierce opposition
by conservatives.
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Khatami
- Bridging Between Fundamental and Contemporary Values
In
the few weeks before the election, Khatami, the candidate
of the left, was making great progress as a populist alternative
to the old regime. A mullah and an intellectual who had been
educated in Western philosophy as well as the Koran, Khatami
had served for ten years as Minister of Culture under Ayatollah
Khomeini. The forces that opposed Nateq-Noori in 1997 knew
Khatami from his years in government service, and felt that
his progressive politics, religious credentials, and experience
in government made him the ideal candidate to carry their
banner in the race for the presidency. After being successfully
drafted, Khatami received active support from the Rafsanjani
administration, which greatly preferred the secularized government
envisioned by Khatami to what it feared would be a return
to a government of the mullahs under Nateq-Noori. The Iranian
people, too, seemed to be of this opinion; when the vote was
tallied, Khatami had been chosen by almost 70% of the populace--
an overwhelming landslide.
Khatami's
election was to mark the most profound change in the nation's
government since the rise of the Islamic Republic in 1979.
The showing of popular support for the progressive Khatami
indicated a shift away from Islamic fundamentalism and from
hostility toward the West. But Khatami's administration, even
though cautious in its revisions of hard-line policies, appears
to have provoked serious strain between the reformist executive
branch and the conservatives in the Majlis and religious leadership.
Although the various levels of Iranian leadership deny the
existence of a power struggle within the government, the recent
conviction of the former mayor of Teheran, a supporter of
Khatami, the closing of several independent newspapers, and
the impeachment of Khatami's Interior Minister Abdol-lah Nuri,
cast doubt upon the public claims of unity.
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Slow
Thaw in Official Stance Toward the US
One
of the most sensitive issues of Khatami's presidency is that
of improving relations with the West. The recent drop in the
price of oil and the ongoing stagnation of the Iranian economy
create pressure to encourage Western investment in the Iranian
infrastructure. While the current American administration
has continued to support economic sanctions against Iran,
Khatami has made carefully calculated gestures toward improving
communications, and Clinton has cautiously but optimistically
responded. Also, recent improvements in relations between
Iran and both Western European and Gulf states have isolated
the US in its sanctions against the Iranian government. Citizens
on both sides are finding opportunities to say publicly that
while the two governments are in conflict, the peoples of
Iran and the US are not enemies. Recently in Paris, a former
American hostage from 1979-80 had a dialogue of reconciliation
with one of his former Iranian captors. Nonetheless, hostility
toward the U.S. government remains pronounced and public in
Iran.
As
with other pressing issues confronting Iranian society, it
is unlikely that any rapprochement between the Iran and US
could occur without the express support of the faqih. Likewise,
any attempt by Khatami to force a solution without the support
of the religious authorities would cause a confrontation between
the supporters of reform and the forces of the Islamic Revolution.
The violence of extremist sects within Iran is an additional,
and politically volatile, deterrent to reform.
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________________
D.
Sean Baer is a graduate student of political science at Humboldt
State University.
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